Bitcoin’s Hashpower Estimate Up, Transaction Fee Revenue Estimate Down

Source: AdobeStock / Siam

There has been a big upward revision in anticipated Bitcoin (BTC) hashrate by digital asset monetary expertise and companies platform Bitooda. At the identical time, they’ve lowered their BTC payment income estimations.

Bitcoin hashrate is now anticipated to succeed in 198 EH/s by the top of this yr versus the July estimate of 145 EH/s, the corporate said of their newest report.

This comes because the hashrate that had been misplaced following China’s mining ban has recovered at a sooner tempo than trade observers presumed it will.

Following the introduction of this now infamous ban, which resulted in a lack of about 100 EH/s, the hashrate restoration has exceeded analysts’ expectations, reaching the present degree of 131.7 EH/s.

Bitooda acknowledges sure dangers to its hashrate estimates, the place a possible upside threat may be “pushed by easing infrastructure constraints, coupled with surging [BTC] value.”   

Per, the 7-day easy transferring common hashrate has been on the rise because the early July lows of 84.53 EH/s. On September 16, it stood at 135.93 EH/s, barely decrease than the 3-month excessive of almost 137 EH/s. The highest level it reached this yr – additionally its all-time excessive – was 182.95 EH/s seen again in May.  

Bitcoin hashrate, 7-day transferring common. Source:

In its evaluation, Bitooda additionally notes that Bitcoin’s transaction (Tx) charges have proved decrease than not too long ago anticipated, encouraging its analysts to suspect a shift of buying and selling from Asia to the West, coupled with a minimize in general buying and selling volumes. 

“Over time, elevated Layer 2 deployment would additionally decrease Layer 1 congestion and thus charges,” in response to the evaluation. “We are reducing our lengthy‐time period estimates, with Tx charges not anticipated to exceed block rewards till 2028.” 

Layer 1 (L1) is the bottom protocol (the Bitcoin blockchain), whereas Layer 2 (L2) is any protocol constructed on high of it, such because the Lightning Network, that makes BTC transactions sooner and cheaper. 

Meanwhile, in the mean time, transaction charges carry lower than 2% of each day miner income, whereas the block reward (at present BTC 6.25) can be once more minimize in half in 2024 and can attain BTC 1.56 in 2028. 

Miners income: Total worth in USD of coinbase block rewards and transaction charges paid to miners


Also, per, the median transaction payment remains to be significantly decrease than initially of this yr.    

Bitcoin median transaction payment chart, 7-say easy transferring common. Source:

Bitooda additionally stated its analysts proceed to anticipate energy infrastructure to be the gating consider additional mining enlargement. Taking under consideration its newest findings, the median energy price is now estimated at USD 40 per MWh, in response to the evaluation.  

“We are additionally updating our estimated Bitcoin community energy price curve, which we assess shifted up with the lack of low‐price Chinese energy. However, it ought to development again from a [USD] 40/MWh median now, to [USD] 30/MWh over the following couple of years,” the agency stated.  

At 14:05 UTC, BTC was buying and selling at USD 47,421 and was unchanged in a day. The value was up by 2% in every week and nearly 7% in a month. It rallied by 333% in a yr.


Learn extra:

– Bitcoin Transaction Fee Estimators: What Are They and How Do You Use Them
– Bitcoin Users Could’ve Saved Half a Billion USD in Fees – Report

– China Goes After Camouflaged Crypto Miners Ahead of Winter Season
– Bitcoin Miners, Take Notice – Biden’s Plan Would Remake the US Electricity System

– BTC Mining Migration, Challenges & Forecasts for the Post-crackdown Industry 
– Unapproved Bitcoin Mining Plant Forced to Close Shop 

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About the Author: Daniel