- Bitcoin value closed the quarter the place it began.
- Bitcoin possible to prolong greater, matching or exceeding all-time highs.
- Major bearish flip within the market may happen close to the top of Q2.
This evaluation will evaluate Bitcoin’s efficiency over the previous quarter and an outlook for what could possibly be anticipated for Q2 – and past.
Bitcoin Price Performance and Review for Q1 2022
Bitcoin value modified little or no over the previous quarter (January 2022 – March 2022). Compared to This fall 2021, the 3-month candlesticks present close to mirror photographs of one another. The last 3-month candlestick in 2021 reveals an enormous wick/shadow that made new all-time highs, adopted by promoting stress that closed the 3-month candlestick with a marginal acquire. Bitcoin opened This fall 2021 at $43,829 and closed at $46,218.
BTC/USD Quarterly Chart
For Q1 2022, the inverse occurred, with Bitcoin value spiking decrease and hitting new six-month lows before rallying and shutting practically proper the place the 3-month candlestick opened. Bitcoin opened Q1 at $$46,209 and closed at $45,536.
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Q1 2022 Analysis
The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo system reveals that Bitcoin’s value stays overwhelmingly bullish stays in an overwhelmingly bullish state. Since Q2 2021, the 3-month Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen have acted as BTC’s main assist. However, an upcoming Kumo Twist between Q3 2022 and This fall 2022 might sign a forthcoming bearish turnaround which will final nicely into 2024.
Quarterly Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Chart
From an oscillator perspective, Bitcoin value stays very impartial within the Relative Strength Index and the Composite Index. The Optex Bands oscillator, nonetheless, is close to all-time lows.
Bitcoin Price Outlook for Q2 2022
From a Japanese candlestick perspective, the cryptocurrency market is witnessing a normal consolidation section after a significant breakout that started in Q2 2020 and culminated in Q1 2021. In Technical Analysis 101, consolidation after a robust transfer has a excessive likelihood of changing right into a resumption of the prior development – on this case, greater.
Except for Q2 2021, Q2 is traditionally among the best performing quarters for Bitcoin value:
Q2 2011 – 1,952% acquire
Q2 2012 – 36.29% acquire
Q2 2013 – 4.82% acquire
Q2 2014 – 40.22% acquire
Q2 2015 – 7.52% acquire
Q2 2016 – 61.15% acquire
Q2 2017 – 127.18% acquire
Q2 2018 – 7.74% loss
Q2 2019 – 162.61% acquire
Q2 2020 – 42.19% acquire
Q2 2021 – 40.40% loss
In the previous ten years, the typical return for Q2 has been a staggering 43.38%. From the Q2 2022 open, a 43.38% acquire would put Bitcoin value at $65,288 – simply shy of the all-time excessive of $68.958.
Price Confluence Zones
How are future value ranges decided if they’ve by no means traded at these value ranges before? A sequence of several types of evaluation ought to be accomplished to speculate and mission a future value vary.
For this evaluation, I might be using Elliot Wave Theory, pure harmonic values discovered within the gentle and sound spectrum – particularly the strategies by the good Gann analyst, Tony Plummer (The Law of Vibration, and The Life Cycle Hypothesis), Gann’s Square of 9, Gann’s Wheel of 24, Gann’s Hexagon Chart, and Fibonacci Expansion zones.
The outcomes of this evaluation recognized two main ranges above Bitcoin’s present worth space to watch in 2022 for Bitcoin value:
$92,094 – $101,856 Price Zone
This vary doesn’t want superior evaluation to decide its significance. The $100,000 is a very powerful main value degree that Bitcoin value will check since first breaking into the $10,000 value vary. This vary incorporates the 61.8% Fibonacci confluence degree, Inner Octave of Fa, 180-degree Square of 9 Angle, 90-degree Dynamic Hexagon Angle, and the psychological $100,000 degree.
Additionally, the $101,856 is derived from measuring Bitcoin’s prior bullish growth phases and assuming an analogous charge of contraction from one section to the next. The result’s a 347% acquire from the April open – or $101,856.
$132,672 – 138,078 Price Zone
This vary incorporates the Inner Octave Ti, 661.8% Fibonacci growth, 360-degree Dynamic Hex Angle, 360-degree Square of 9 Angle, and 100% Fibonacci Confluence Zone.
Time Cycle Analysis
In addition to projecting value ranges sooner or later, the identical method may be taken with time. For time cycle evaluation, a lot of the evaluation comes from Gann’s work in main and minor time cycles and his use of astronomical cycles. The time research are additional supplemented with the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo system’s Time Principle and Hurst Cycle Analysis.
After finishing this evaluation, an enormous cluster of cycles full and coalesce from mid-June 2022 to July 2022. Specifically, the Bitcoin value is projected to be at or close to a brand new all-time excessive inside June and July 2022. The time clusters embrace the next time cycle evaluation technique:
Gann’s Square of 9 dates.
Gann’s Cycle of the Inner 12 months day counts.
Gann’s Master Square of 12 weekly counts.
Gann’s Master Square of 12 month-to-month counts.
Ichimoku Monthly Kumo Twist
Lunar Phase (New and Full Moons)
Lunar Apogee and Perigee
Mid-Point of Gann’s Square of a Range
The 850-day Bitcoin bull cycle
While all cryptocurrencies, together with Bitcoin, nonetheless have minimal knowledge to full a adequate cycle evaluation, a few of these cycles are repeated. Both Bitcoin and Bitcoin present that their distinguished bull runs final roughly 850 days (typically much less, typically extra).
However, the Cycle was interrupted and sure terminated in the course of the Covid-19 crash in 2020. The possible motive for that termination occasion was not due to solely Covid however due to the top of Bitcoin’s first 10-year cycle. That crash initiated a form of reset button. The projected date vary of the present bull market excessive is probably going to terminate across the 854th day.
Ceres Declination Cycle
Perhaps essentially the most essential part of this evaluation is the most important asteroid Ceres’ Declination Cycle. Bitcoin value tends to intently comply with the Ceres Declination swing cycle – virtually too precise at occasions.
Bitcoin may be very delicate to this Cycle and has been for nearly twelve years. The present Ceres Declination Cycle peaks in mid-June 2022 and begins to slope south in early July 2022. Additional Gann and astronomical cycle dates converge when the Ceres Declination cycles start to slope down – all dates for 2022:
June 4 – Geocentric Mars Conjunct Jupiter exits
June 14 – 90-degree Square of 9 Date (from the 2020 Covid crash low)
June 30 – New Moon, Moon Apogee
July 14 – Full Moon, Moon Perigee
July 7 – Gann Seasonal Date
July 15 – New Square of a Range Time Cycle
July 15 – 854th day from the 2020 Covid crash low
July 27 – Earth Conjunct Pallas begins
Dates of significance past 2022, even 2023, may be forecasted. In 2024, a major swing low of significance is probably going to happen in the course of the low of the Ceres Declination cycle.
Ceres Declination Cycle bottoms round September 23, 2024, and begins to flip greater round October 4, 2024
August 14, 2024 – Geocentric Mars Conjunct Jupiter
August 20, 2024 – Full Moon, Moon Perigee
September 7 to September 17, 2024 – Mars Out-Of-Bounds
September 14, 2024 – 90-degree Square of 9 dates (from the 2020 Covid crash low)
Putting all of it collectively
BTC/USD Quarterly Chart
April 2022 – July 2022
April is traditionally among the best performing months for Bitcoin. If it follows historic norms, then a gentle rise ought to be noticed for the rest of April, extending till the top of June and the start of July.
July 15 is most certainly when the real conviction of promoting stress begins.
July 2022 – January 2023
Weakness and promoting stress are possible to generate a 30% to 40% drop from the all-time highs, adopted by a aid rally in January 2023.
January 2023 – April 2023
The aid rally is probably going to terminate between the top of April 2023 to the start of May 2023.
May 2023 – October 2024
The aid rally for Bitcoin value will generate some false hope, with promoting stress resuming in May 2023 and lengthening into the Fall of 2024. The lows of 2024 are possible to match the present median retracement percentages of 75% to 83% for Bitcoin and your complete cryptocurrency market. However, relying on institutional participation, the speed of the drawdown could possibly be minimize by a substantial quantity, maybe solely between 42% and 51%.
Q2 Forecast for Bitcoin Price
A brand new all-time excessive close to $100,000 or $138,000 on or before late June 2022 to mid-July 2022.