5 ETF Predictions for 2023

My prediction is that traders lean again into gold’s prolonged monitor file to hedge in opposition to a probably weaker greenback, sticky inflation, continued geopolitical strife, and market volatility.  Toss-in rising questions over whether or not bitcoin/crypto is “digital gold” and I believe there’s a pool of capital that jumps into gold (your entire above floor provide of which inserts into three or 4 Olympic swimming swimming pools by the way in which).  It additionally seems central banks corresponding to China and Russia are accumulating gold – one other potential tailwind.  Look for ETFs such because the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM), iShares Gold Trust (IAU), iShares Gold Trust Micro (IAU), GraniteShares Gold Trust (BAR), and others to see an enormous uptick in investor curiosity.

4) Still. No. Spot. Bitcoin. ETF.

I’ve gone forwards and backwards on this over the previous a number of weeks.  There is part of me that believes a spot bitcoin ETF will probably be accredited this yr as a result of… effectively, it SHOULD exist.  Grayscale agrees and really sued the SEC final yr over changing the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into an ETF.  I absolutely agree with the thrust of Grayscale’s lawsuit, which is mainly this…

Still ready for clever rationalization on how dangerous actors might manipulate spot btc w/out it impacting CME btc futures…

Proposed spot btc ETFs would take pricing cues from very same crypto exchanges as CME futures.

If spot topic to fraud/manipulation, then so are futures.

— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) June 30, 2022

Before continuing with my prediction, let me be crystal clear on one thing I’ve stated repeatedly up to now:  my advocacy for a spot bitcoin ETF has nothing to do with the funding advantage of bitcoin itself.  I’ve stated from the start that bitcoin could possibly be a homerun or it might go to zero.  This is an asset that ought to occupy solely a small satellite tv for pc place in a portfolio, if in any respect.  Period.  The difficulty is that some traders need publicity to bitcoin they usually’re going to discover a solution to get it it doesn’t matter what.  Why not provide that publicity in a correctly functioning, regulated funding automobile?

GBTC is at present buying and selling at a virtually 50% low cost, an issue an ETF would rapidly resolve.  FTX prospects seem to have misplaced “their” bitcoin on account of fraud, one other drawback an ETF would resolve.  There are numerous examples of bitcoin homeowners misplacing personal keys or having their change hacked, once more issues an ETF would resolve. I could go on… however the level is that if the SEC’s mission is to guard traders, then a spot bitcoin ETF would assist accomplish that.  Before you say, “Well, Nate – you simply stated bitcoin might go to zero”, let me remind you that the SEC allowed ETFs corresponding to these to come back to market final yr:

ETFs launched this yr…

B-BBB CLO ETF ✅

2x leveraged fintech ETF ✅

Psychedelics ETF ✅

2x VIX futures ETF ✅

Inverse VIX futures ETF ✅

2x ARKK ETF ✅

Breakfast commodity ETF ✅

CCC-rated excessive yield bond ETF ✅

10+ metaverse/blockchain/and so on ETFs ✅

Spot bitcoin ETF ❌

— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) June 9, 2022

In any occasion, whereas I imagine the SEC ought to approve a spot bitcoin ETF, my prediction is that they gained’t in 2023.  The SEC filed a brief in December, their first response to Grayscale’s lawsuit.  It mainly regurgitated the identical messaging SEC Chair Gary Gensler has supplied from day considered one of his tenure, which is that spot crypto exchanges want to come back beneath his regulatory purview earlier than the SEC will approve a spot bitcoin ETF.

There are a number of proposals floating round Congress to control crypto.  The difficulty is there’s vital disagreement over who ought to really regulate crypto and whether or not sure cryptos needs to be categorized as securities or commodities.  Add-in the FTX debacle and a few of the different shenanigans we’ve seen in crypto lately and it appears extremely unlikely this all will get sorted out over the following 12 months (politicians love grandstanding).  The solely wild card right here is that if Grayscale have been someway in a position to prevail of their lawsuit in opposition to the SEC and achieve this sooner than individuals are anticipating.  That might definitely change the calculus, however I’m simply not optimistic on that.

Still.  No.  Spot.  Bitcoin.  ETF.

5) Morgan Stanley is ETF Issuer of Year

Morgan Stanley is ready to enter the ETF area any day now.  ETF nerds know that Morgan was really a pioneer in worldwide ETFs by way of their World Equity Benchmark Series (WEBS) ETFs, which launched in 1996 with Barclays as subadvisor.  Morgan ended-up promoting the WEBS to Barclays in 2000.  Barclays later rebranded to iShares and bought to BlackRock in 2009.  The relaxation, as they are saying, is historical past and Morgan has had no additional ETF presence.

That is ready to alter with the launch of their preliminary suite of ETFs, which incorporates 4 index-based ETFs and two actively managed ETFs – all in partnership with Calvert, a extremely revered title in ESG.