July 12, 2021
Gold notched its third straight week of upper costs because the yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped beneath 1.3% for the primary time since February. The extremely transmissible Delta variant was additionally dominated essentially the most dominant pressure of coronavirus within the U.S., threatening financial progress and elevating uncertainty in regards to the subsequent rate of interest hike.
Against this backdrop, the yellow steel is now flashing a golden cross, which means the 50-day shifting common is buying and selling above the 200-day shifting common. In the previous, this has been a bullish indicator for gold costs, that are nonetheless off some 12% from their all-time highs set final summer season.
In the brief to medium time period, it seems as if gold demand will proceed to be pushed by central financial institution coverage, which ought to stay accommodative whilst inflation fears increase. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, there’s a 75% likelihood that rates of interest will keep within the 0.00% to 0.25% vary a yr from now, leaving loads of time for gold to check $2,000 an oz or extra.
Pandemic Still Tops Central Bankers’ List of Worries, with Inflation Not Too Far Behind
Speaking of central banks, UBS launched the outcomes of its annual reserve management survey final week, which present that managers are nonetheless very a lot involved with the dealing with of the pandemic.
Nearly 80% of respondents cited failure to finish the pandemic as their primary concern impacting the worldwide economic system proper now, with greater than half of them saying they believed it will be over solely after 2022. Here within the U.S., the speed of vaccination has slowed significantly in sure populations, permitting Canada, the United Kingdom, Italy and Germany to catch up. In low-income nations, in the meantime, just one% of individuals have acquired one dose of the vaccine.
Central bankers’ concern just isn’t unfounded. IHS Markit’s chief enterprise economist printed an article final week displaying there’s a strong correlation between vaccination rates and economic growth. The larger a rustic’s vax charge, the upper its PMI studying was in June; the reverse was additionally true.
Rounding out the highest three issues impacting future progress have been authorities debt ranges (71% of respondents), one thing I’ve written a lot about, and inflation (57%). I ought to level out that inflation didn’t even seem on the listing of issues one yr in the past when the final survey was taken. The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) additionally notes, in its review of the second quarter, that there have been greater than 100,000 press articles printed about inflation in May, way over on COVID-19.
Gold Can Help Manage Risk
All of those issues, I imagine, favor gold as a portfolio diversifier. Low bond yields have pushed traders into riskier property, together with shares. This has been a profitable technique as main indices have been hitting all-time highs, but it surely’s vital to keep up a place in gold to assist handle threat. I like to recommend a ten% weighting, with 5% in bodily gold and 5% in gold shares. A 1% to 2% allocation in Bitcoin and Ether, to not point out crypto mining shares, additionally is smart proper now.
HIVE Blockchain Technologies (HVBT) Featured in Times Square
As lots of you’re conscious, HIVE Blockchain Technologies, the world’s first publicly traded cryptocurrency mining firm, listed on the tech-heavy Nasdaq on July 1, 4 years after its debut on the TSX Venture Exchange.
I used to be very joyful final week to see HIVE featured on Nasdaq’s Times Square marquee, which reaches 1,000,000 a day.
I’m additionally grateful that HIVE crew members and I’ve the chance right now to take part within the closing bell ceremony at Nasdaq. We’re solely getting began!
Read the most recent HIVE press launch by clicking here.
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The Purchasing Manager’s Index is an indicator of the financial well being of the manufacturing sector. The PMI index is predicated on 5 main indicators: new orders, stock ranges, manufacturing, provider deliveries and the employment setting.
Frank Holmes has been appointed non-executive chairman of the Board of Directors of HIVE Blockchain Technologies. Both Mr. Holmes and U.S. Global Investors personal shares of HIVE. Effective 8/31/2018, Frank Holmes serves because the interim govt chairman of HIVE.